While Kevin VanDam is the undisputed “Greatest of All-Time” (G.O.A.T.) in professional bass fishing, when it comes to the Bassmaster Elite Series, Aaron Martens is the consistency king, at least for now.
Some of the trends are surprising in the following glance inside the numbers of the Elite Series 12-year history. In looking strictly at the season-by-season Toyota Angler of the Year final point standings, you get a snapshot of consistency. Tournament victories, Top 12 finishes and dollars earned aren’t part of this picture. It’s solely a look at average AOY final rankings over the past dozen years. Closer looks at the past 5- and 3-year periods provide another snapshot of who’s been hot lately. Finally, there’s last year’s Top 12 as a reminder about momentum heading into 2018.
While VanDam would be the obvious guess for overall consistency in Elite Series history, it’s not exactly shocking that Martens has the best average when it comes to AOY finishes. Martens’ AOY “batting average” is 10th, two places better than VanDam and Edwin Evers, who are tied for second place with an AOY average of 12th.
Martens’ history of AOY finishes is as follows: 4th, 3rd, 13th, 16th, 12th, 16th, 10th, 1st, 4th, 1st, 22nd and 16th.
Thirty-seven anglers have competed all 12 years. That number in itself gives you some idea about the turnover among Elite Series anglers, as the field annually has about 110 competitors. In the final chart below, you’ll see the Top 25 AOY averages from those that have been here since the beginning.
In the search for rising stars and trends on the circuit, the last five years of AOY finishes were also tabulated. No. 1 with a bullet is Keith Combs with an average AOY finish of 7th from 2013-17. Combs has a solid seven-year track record on the Elite Series, as follows: 15th, 41st, 5th, 6th, 14th, 2nd and 9th. But he’s really been on a roll the last five seasons.
It’s in the five-year average, but actually the last four seasons, where you can see VanDam’s decline vs. the competition. Here are his 12 AOY finishes, from first to last: 3rd, 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 6th, 1st, 7th, 3rd, 53rd, 24th, 30th and 10th. That computes to an otherworldly 3rd-place AOY average over the first eight Elite seasons, and 29th-place over the last four.
KVD’s most recent four-year AOY average provides the perfect opportunity to inject the old adage, “Past performance is no guarantee of future results.” Keep that in mind for all these trends, with VanDam as the top example. He was in contention late last season for another AOY title. Who wants to bet he won’t reverse his recent drift and win another one?
Narrowing the focus even more, a glance at the past three seasons offers a few gems. The rising star is Jordan Lee with consecutive AOY finishes of 9th, 6th and 4th – an average of 6th. (Plus, of course, Lee has the 2017 Bassmaster Classic title.) But nestled in there just under the radar, as usual, is Evers. His 12-year AOY average finish is 12th, the last five years his average is 9th and the last three years it’s 7th. Hackney is the only other angler who has a similar positive trend in the 12-year, 5-year and 3-year AOY averages: 16th, 13th, 7th.
Finally, there’s a list of the Top 12 in last year’s AOY standings. Two names standout: Jacob Wheeler, 3rd, and Dustin Connell, 12th. It was the first year for both on the Elite Series. It’s hard to ignore that kind of momentum.
In closing, there is one statistic that makes you question any trend in AOY standings: There are two prominent instances of a seemingly inexplicable year-four hiccup. Example 1-A would be Jacob Powroznik – 3rd, 5th and 4th in his first three years on the Elite Series, then 47th last year. Example 1-B is Justin Lucas – 11th, 2nd and 8th in his first three seasons, then 64th last year.
So should Jordan Lee be afraid – be very, very afraid?
As the wise man said, “We’ll see.”
(Special thanks to Ronnie Moore for compiling the 12-year history of Elite Series AOY finishes and averages.)
AOY 12-year average
1. Aaron Martens 10
2. Edwin Evers 12
(tie) Kevin VanDam 12
4. Todd Faircloth 14
5 Skeet Reese 15
6, Greg Hackney 16
7. Gerald Swindle 22
8, Alton Jones 23
(tie) Dean Rojas 23
10. Randy Howell 24
(tie) Mike Iaconelli 24
12. Steve Kennedy 25
13. Bill Lowen 31
14. Brent Chapman 34
(tie) John Crews 34
16. Terry Scroggins 38
17. Jeff Kriet 39
18. Mike McClelland 40
19. Jared Lintner 41
(tie) Ish Monroe 41
(tie) Takahiro Omori 41
(tie) Chris Lane 41
23. Tommy Biffle 42
(tie) Gary Klein 42
25. Russ Lane 45
AOY Average Last 5 Years
1. Keith Combs 7
2. Edwin Evers 9
(tie) Aaron Martens 9
4. Greg Hackney 13
5. Todd Faircloth 18
6. Bobby Lane 19
(tie) Skeet Reese 19
8. Gerald Swindle 20
9. Brandon Palaniuk 23
10. Alton Jones 24
(tie) Kevin VanDam 24
12. Dean Rojas 25
13. Casey Ashley 29
(tie) Randy Howell 29
15, John Crews 31
(tie) Chris Zaldain 31
17. Bill Lowen 32
(tie) Mark Davis 32
19. Mike Iaconelli 33
20. Matt Herren 36
21. David Walker 38
22. Cliff Pace 39
23. Chris Lane 41
24. Ish Monroe 43
25. Tahahiro Omori 48
AOY Average Last 3 Years
1. Jordan Lee 6
2. Edwin Evers 7
(tie) Greg Hackney 7
4. Jason Christie 8
(tie) Keith Combs 8
6. Brandon Palaniuk 9
7. Aaron Martens 13
8. Ott Defoe 15
9. Bobby Lane 19
10. Gerald Swindle 20
11. Kevin VanDam 21
12. Alton Jones 22
AOY 2017 Final Standings
1. Brandon Palaniuk 902
2. Jason Christie 888
3. Jacob Wheeler 865
4. Jordan Lee 823
5. Edwin Evers 817
6. Casey Ashley 814
7. Ott Defoe 810
8. Greg Hackney 794
9. Keith Combs 771
10. Kevin VanDam 769
11. Brent Ehler 766
12. Dustin Connell 765
Originally posted on Bassmaster Go to Source
Author: Steve Wright
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